Crypto Winter Unlikely As ‘Astonishing’ User Growth Dwarfs Internet Adoption Rate: Macro Guru Raoul Pal

crypto winter unlikely

Former Goldman Sachs executive Raoul Pal expects there will be billions of new cryptocurrency users by the end of the decade, despite the jitters investors may currently feel about steps.

In a new recession and inflation discussion on Real Vision Finance’s YouTube channel, the macro guru explores historical data comparing crypto adoption rates to the early years of the internet.

“Cryptography adoption now massively outpaces the internet. It has grown at around 165% annually compared to 85% for the internet over the same period. This is the fastest adoption of any technology in the entire history of mankind.

We’re going to reach five billion users by 2030, which is to say, the widespread adoption of crypto is a technology for the internet of value and a host of other things.

And a billion users are coming in 2024 [even when] lower the growth rate again. I don’t assume the growth remains as fiery as it has been. In fact, growth is slowing down.

I think that’s the magnitude of what’s happening. And you can own that, unlike the internet, it’s much easier to own because you own a share of the network by owning the crypto.

macro adoption 1
Source: Real Vision Finance/YouTube

Pal continues to chart early-stage growth and predicts unprecedented expansion as crypto outpaces the internet by 76% to 43% later this year.

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“The next graph shows it in a more dramatic way, which is not on a logarithmic scale. And we’re assuming that the internet grew 43% per year from about year six.

Year zero in this case is 5 million users, we took 5 million crypto and internet users and then looked at their growth as they were adopted. After the sixth year, the intention increased by 43% per year.

If the crypto grows 43% per year, it reaches year 10, or 1.2 billion over four years. But if it continues to grow at 76%, which is a drop in growth, from the 165% it’s doing now, we get to 2.8 billion.

These are amazing numbers, the world has never seen anything like this before. Whatever happens, whatever the trend growth rate is, it blows up, so the macroeconomic backdrop is huge.

macro adoption 2
Source: Real Vision Finance/YouTube

The CEO of Real Vision warns that the overall cryptocurrency market capitalization is currently not growing, and while this is not a true crypto winter, investors should be prepared for a bear market.

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The macro investor concludes his remarks by saying that until network activity picks up, people can expect to see stagnant adoption rates in the crypto space.

“If I look at how we look at the network, the total encryption volumes [have] trending sideways for a while now. Sideways volumes tend to lead to sideways markets, and that’s what we’ve had in crypto.

The volume has to increase over time to show network adoption, and we’ve never seen that. »


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Featured Image: Shutterstock/Warm_Tail/Natalia Siiatovskaia

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